The Fed Caused The Financial Crises Of 2000s

In an irrational society, it is only logic to expect that the most powerful organization usually causes the greatest crisis. But, being the most powerful, the organization is also most effective in covering up its mistakes. The Federal Reserve is the most powerful financial organization in the world and has caused the financial crises of 2000s, but, being the most knowledgeable, at least, in practical economics, it has been able to cover up its tracks. The Fed has proven through the financial crises the irrationality of our society.

Briefly, the former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan was wrong to affect the stock market in 2000 by shrinking the money supply from March to October, after he incorrectly thought the Internet infrastructure building as a bubble, and the crash of the explosive growth of the Internet started the ball rolling on the subsequent financial crises of the first decade of the third millennium. The late Milton Friedman has repeated warned against the Fed trying to influence the stock market. He also proposed "the replacement of the Federal Reserve Board with a computer."

Chairman Greenspan knew enough economics to replace the high-tech Internet industry with the low-tech housing and automobile industries by lowing the fed rate to as low as 1%. The Internet had caused the boom in the late 1990s, in spite the claims of the credit by the politicians. Nature has given mankind roughly one major innovation per generation, around 25 years. With the erroneous perception of the Internet Bubble, claimed by the most powerful financial figure in the world, the world is left with an innovation vacuum for the subsequent years and beyond. The unusually long period of abnormally low interest rate had caused a real estate and automobile oversupply.

Without knowing the relationship between the interest rate and the price of mortgaged real estates, and automobiles, the Fed caused the Subprime Woe by raising the fed rate, continued even after Chairman Greenspan left office, up to 5.25%. From the Infinite Spreadsheet Valuation System based on the solution of value of Post-Science Institute relating the price to the interest rate and the rate of return, every percentage increase in the mortgage rate translates into about 9% of price drop. The increase of the fed rate from 1% to 5.25% caused mortgage rate to increase proportionally and roughly a 40% decrease in real estate price.

Karl Marx warned that the capitalistic system would collapse due to cutthroat price competition. But, the recent economic history has proven him wrong with continual parade of major innovations, which raises the price along with value and productivity. With the Internet, the major innovation for the current generation, being discouraged by Greenspan, the world economy continue to shrink due to price competition of non-innovative products. The proposal of Friedman of dropping money from helicopters has been implemented and proven effective by the current Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, but could only be an temporary measure.

In conclusion, society needs to move from the Free Market of Milton Friedman to the post-Freidman economy regulated by non-violable laws of nature, such as the post-science solution of value, not to go back to pre-Friedman economy based on man-made regulations. The solution of value, which rigorously determines the relationships among the price, the interest rate, and the rate of return, can help the Fed to rationally set the interest rate, which should be greater than the inflation rate and less than the rate of return. The solution of value had easily predicted the over-valuation of the real estate market for the Saving and Loan Crisis and the Subprime Woe. The rate of return, which can only be determined with the availability of the solution of value, should be used to determine the funding priorities to stimulate the economy. Currently, the government with the approval or the Fed is funding easy and low-return projects similar to those which sustained the Great Depression. It is the strong speculation of Post-Science Institute that we might need to revitalize the Internet industry to avoid another Great Depression, for major innovation is difficult to develop within a short time and the Internet is a proven innovation. In sum, we should trust great minds, like Freidman and Marx, not those of Greenspan and other politicians, and we need to wind back the clock to 2000 before Alan Greenspan absent-mindedly crashed the Internet boom.

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